United States – The Biden administration is now claiming credit for the reduction in violent crime across the country during the earlier parts of this year, but one expert on the matter has opined that the FBI trends could very well be inflated and that the actual numbers are not yet conclusive.
Specifically, the number of violent crimes dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in the prior year; every category of violent crime declined across all regions since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, as reported by HealthDay.
Significant Crime Reductions in Early 2024
The murder count was 26% lower, as was the count for rape, while robbery was recorded to be 18% lower, and there was a 13% reduction in aggravated assault in the first quarter of the year. Property crime decreased by four percent from the previous year, and overall violent crime was reduced by fifteen percent – a decline that was seen in every region from the West with a ten percent drop to the Midwest with nineteen percent.
However, the rate of property crimes has been reduced by 15 percent, as indicated by the data that Biden highlighted in a statement.
“My administration is putting more cops on the beat, holding violent criminals accountable, and getting illegal guns off the street — and we are doing it in partnership with communities. As a result, Americans are safer today than when I took office,” Biden said.
The declines were in line with earlier reports signifying that crime had increased during the coronavirus. But one crime data analyst was particularly skeptical the latest decreases where as steep.
Expert Skepticism on Crime Data
Either way, violent crime probably declined earlier this year, but the FBI probably overstated the extent, according to Jeff Asher, with the data consulting firm AH Datalytics in an online piece.
Asher also noted that based on the preliminary data, 77% of the population of the United States is affected and there is a tendency that there may be reporting errors, however, the calendar months give the law enforcement agencies time to make further submissions before making the final submission.
Variability in Crime Data
That might be true for the overall decline, but other data contain different rates of the declining violent crime by city and even a slight increase in that in New York in the first quarter of 2024, Asher said.
“I would urge strong caution into reading too much into the raw percent changes and focus on the overarching picture. Almost all crime data is imperfect, and the quarterly data adds an important piece of imperfection to the national crime trend jigsaw puzzle,” Asher wrote.
Historical Context and Ongoing Trends
Homicides rose 29% in the US in 2020 to record the largest single-year increase documented by the FBI. Some of the reasons that psychiatrists gave for sharper increases were the shutdown due to the pandemic, shootings, and fears of the economy and stress, as reported by HealthDay.
Crimes of violence again approached pre-COVID levels in 2022 and declined still more in 2023