United States: As Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican presidential nomination contest grows, some US allies are concerned about an American tilt toward isolationism, which would reflect an electorate mostly focused on home matters.
Foreign Policy Low on Priority List for Iowa Caucus Attendees
That was demonstrated in polling in Iowa, which Trump won by a landslide on Monday, with foreign policy ranking as the top issue for only one in every ten caucus attendees, according to Edison Research.
That is four in 10 who said that the economy was NOT. 1 and 3 in 10 of those who cited immigration.
National Polling Highlights
National polling yields a similar image. Americans, in turn, have regularly named foreign issues as the biggest problem of their country, almost exclusively meaning immigration and not international conflicts, according to ten-year Reuters/Ipsos polling.
According to the December Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 6% of respondents from all across America answered that war and foreign interventions were among the most pressing problems faced by the United States in comparison with immigration, which was chosen as a concern for about 11% people and the top number went to the economy – selected this on their list by nearly one fifth (equal roughly at almost ten percent cited crime).
While domestic concerns have long dominated American politics, isolationism has grown in recent years, particularly within the Republican Party, as Trump and other leaders have criticized US aid to help Ukraine fight off Russia’s 2022 invasion, and Trump has warned that America could become embroiled in a global war.
Foreign diplomats in Washington are scurrying to assess the former president’s foreign intentions, with Trump allies claiming he will decrease defense support to Europe, further reduce trade connections with China, and reinstate tariffs as a key tool of his foreign policy.
They have also expressed concern over legislative Republicans’ rejection of Democratic President Joe Biden’s request for additional cash for Ukraine, Israel in its war with Hamas, and Taiwan as it confronts a more assertive China. The Republican-controlled United States House of Representatives authorized an Israel aid package in November that would be offset by cuts to the federal tax-collection agency, a proposal that the Democratic-majority Senate rejected.
“Trump has been instrumental in raising questions about our alliances and our involvement in the world that were pretty much taken for granted,” said Dina Smeltz, a public opinion expert at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Isolationism Surges Within the Republican Party
According to a September Chicago Council poll, 53% of Republicans believe the United States should “stay out of world affairs,” the first time a majority of either party has supported such an isolationist posture since 1974.
If elected for a second term after his 2017-2021 administration, Trump is expected to appoint supporters in important positions in the Pentagon, State Department, and CIA, giving him more leeway to pursue isolationist policies.
Diplomats Assess Trump’s Foreign Intentions
Thierry Breton, a French commissioner in charge of the European Union’s internal market, stated earlier this month that in 2020, then-President Trump told top European officials that the United States would never help Europe if it were attacked, and that Washington would withdraw from the NATO military alliance with European countries and Canada.
It is not only Republican politicians who are sceptical of aid to allies. A January Reuters/Ipsos poll found that one-third of Republican respondents supported sending arms to Ukraine, but only one-fifth supported helping Ukraine with both weapons and money.
Global Leaders Express Apprehension
Almost half of Republicans favored providing arms to Israel. There was slightly less support for both money and weaponry.
Some of those closest to the United States have also expressed concerns about the prospect of another Trump presidency, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying on Tuesday, “It wasn’t the first time, and if there is a second, it didn’t come easy then either.